🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|