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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.